POLLS: ANC and DA neck-and-neck in Joburg

This graphic shows which mayoral candidate is more poplar in the City of Johannesburg according to the latest eNCA poll Photo: eNCA / Ipsos

*  For your full guide to the 2016 municipal elections, click here.

JOHANNESBURG – The African National Congress (ANC) have marginally increased in support and are now only four percentage points behind the Democratic Alliance (DA) putting them in a close race to win control of the City of Johannesburg.

This is according to the latest eNCA poll, ahead of the municipal elections on 3 August.

Support for the DA remains the same as last week with the party led by Mmusi Maimane polling at 36 percent.

The ANC is at 32 percent and support for the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) remains at nine percent, the same result they have achieved the last three weeks.

The number of undecided respondents decreased by one percentage point to 13 percent this week.

The margin of error in the poll results for Johannesburg is 3.9 percent.

The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) remains the strongest out of the smaller parties. The party led by Mangosuthu Buthelezi polled at 0.8 percent this week.

ANC mayoral candidate Parks Tau remains more popular than DA mayoral candidate Herman Mashaba.

Positive sentiment increased the most for the ANC who polled at 43 percent. The party’s negative sentiment rating decreased by one point to 43 percent this week.

Despite the increase, the ANC’s positive sentiment rating is still lower than the DA’s.

Negative sentiment increased for the DA taking them to a 25 percent. The party’s positive party rating increased to 53 percent.

The EFF increased in the negative and positive party sentiment rating this week. The party led by Julius Malema received a 46 percent negative sentiment rating and received a 28 percent positive sentiment rating.

In terms of voter turnout, 89 percent of people polled in Johannesburg said they were registered to vote and 90 percent of respondents said they want to vote.

*Polls - methodology and background:

Ipsos, Social & Market Research and Political Polling Specialists undertook an “establishment survey” which was launched at the end of May/beginning of June to recruit eligible voters in the three hotly contested metropolitan areas: the cities of Johannesburg and Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay metro. As mobile phone incidence in these areas are very high, it was decided to use mobile phone interviews for this project. The aim was to recruit a panel of eligible voters who would be asked to participate weekly in a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview) survey, focusing on their party choices and relevant campaign issues. 

As no lists or directory of mobile phone numbers is freely available, lists of mobile numbers were created by computer and these lists were used as the basis of a random digit dialling process to phone would-be respondents. Only respondents in the three metros were recruited, thus a large number of phone calls were made that could not be used for the study. However, it was important to follow a random selection procedure.

In this first part of the process the demographic detail of individuals were recorded and pertinent questions about their views on the country and political parties were asked. One of the questions probed about the party they voted for in the 2014 national election - this was chosen as a baseline as this was the most recent election in the country.

A total of 2,500 panel members were recruited and every week 1,500 of them are phoned back for a 5-minute interview to answer questions on pertinent issues around the Local Government Elections. The results are representative of the opinions in each metropolitan area and are weighted and projected to reflect the views of the eligible voters in each area. These results should be evaluated within the margin of error.  (All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, response rate and sampling methodology used.)

The margin of error for the results of the City of Johannesburg will be between 1.2 percent and 2.8 percent for the City of Tshwane it is between1.6 percent and 3.7 percent and for Nelson Mandela Bay between 2.5 percent and 5.7 percent. As opinion research is not an exact science, results will have to be evaluated keeping these margins of error in mind.

Click on the links below for more results:

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