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First eNCA election poll results reveal surprising outcomes
Posted on: Thu 16 Jun 2016
The ANC and DA are running neck-and-neck in the battle for control of the three key cities with just seven weeks to go before the 3 August municipal elections, according to an eNCA election poll released tonight.
eNCA (DStv Channel 403), in its role as the country’s leading news channel, revealed the first of seven weekly polls it is conducting in the run-up to the vote.
The polls* run in Tshwane, Johannesburg and Nelson Mandela Bay indicate that the ANC has lost significant ground whilst the DA has substantially increased its popularity amongst voters. The EFF has grown only marginally. The outcome in these three cities, however, will be decided by the 10% of voters who are still undecided.
“Up to now, we have had only guessing and speculation about the political future of these key cities. Now we have the facts, and we know how close it is. These polls are eNCA’s contribution to the elections, as we believe they will stimulate interest and show people how important their vote is. From week to week, we will track if anyone is pulling ahead,” said eNCA Editor-in-Chief Anton Harber.
eNCA (DStv Channel 403) will release their Election Polls results every Thursday at 6.30pm in the run up to the Elections and also publish them on eNCA.com where viewers can dig deeper into the numbers.
“While the headline numbers tell a fascinating story, we felt it was useful to unpack these online, providing a greater level of detail than is possible within the time constraints of TV. We will also introduce an interactive feature on Monday 20th June, that allows eNCA.com users to segment the results by age, gender, race and income level to see how these factors affect party choices”, said Tim Spira, GM of eNCA online.
* Polls - Methodology and Background:
IPSOS, Social & Market Research and Political Polling Specialists undertook an “establishment survey” which was launched at the end of May/beginning of June to recruit eligible voters in the three hotly contested metropolitan areas: the cities of Johannesburg and Tshwane/Pretoria and Nelson Mandela Bay metro. As mobile phone incidence in these areas are very high, it was decided to use mobile phone interviews for this project. The aim was to recruit a panel of eligible voters who would be asked to participate weekly in a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview) survey, focusing on their party choices and relevant campaign issues. As no lists or directory of mobile phone numbers is freely available, lists of mobile numbers were created by computer and these lists were used as the basis of a random digit dialing process to phone would-be respondents. Only respondents in the three metros were recruited, thus a large number of phone calls were made that could not be used for the study. However, it was important to follow a random selection procedure.
In this first part of the process the demographic detail of individuals were recorded and pertinent questions about their views on the country and political parties were asked. One of the questions probed about the party they voted for in the 2014 national election - this was chosen as a baseline as this was the most recent election in the country.
A total of 2,500 panel members were recruited and every week 1,500 of them will be phoned back for a 5-minute interview to answer questions on pertinent issues around the Local Government Elections. The results are representative of the opinions in each metropolitan area and are weighted and projected to reflect the views of the eligible voters in each area. These results should be evaluated within the margin of error. (All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, response rate and sampling methodology used.) The margin of error for the results of the `city of Johannesburg will be between 1.2% and 2.8%; for the City of Tshwane it is between 1.6% and 3.7% and for Nelson Mandela Bay between 2.5% and 5.7%. As opinion research is not an exact science, results will have to be evaluated keeping these margins of error in mind.
See the research here:
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