Election 2019: Battle for the provinces

The level of support given to the ANC, the DA and the EFF in each of South Africa's nine provinces by registered voters of whom are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

The level of support given to the ANC, the DA and the EFF in each of South Africa's nine provinces by registered voters of whom are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

eNCA

JOHANNESBURG - While the national outcomes of this year’s general election has quickly become the public’s focal point, the provincial ballot promises to be closely contested.

Political parties have a matter of days left of electioneering until the public takes to the ballot boxes on 8 May to decide which party will represent them in the National Assembly and Provincial Legislature.

Battle lines are being drawn in hotly contested provinces such the Western Cape, the Northern Cape and Gauteng with the African National Congress (ANC) having ruled over Gauteng, the Northern Cape, the Eastern Cape, the Free State, Limpopo, the North-West since 1994.

Here is a look at where South Africa’s largest political parties currently stand among the country’s nine provinces.

Western Cape

A total of 3,127,342 registered voters are expected to make their mark in the 2019 provincial election in the Western Cape whereby the largest portion of voters – approximately 742,902 - are between the ages of 30 and 39 years.

Although the Democratic Alliance (DA) has maintained control over the Western Cape since 2009, polls suggest the party will face a power struggle with the ANC whereby 44,4 percent of registered voters have shown support for the DA in its heartland – just 6,8 percent more than voters of whom believe it is time for the ANC to take control.

In the 2014 provincial election, the DA secured 26.49 percent more of the share of the vote than the ANC in the Western Cape but a survey conducted in March earlier this year by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) suggests the DA will fall by 9,3 percentage points to 50,1 percent.

On a 74,7 percent turnout scenario, the IRR claims support for the party increases to 54 percent.

The IRR’s survey further suggests the ANC’s share of the vote in the Western Cape will increase by 1 percent from the 32,9 percent it received in the 2014 provincial election – 16,2 percent less than the DA.

On a 74,7 percent turnout scenario, support for the ANC drops to 30 percent.

The IRR’s survey also suggests a noteworthy increase in the share of the Western Cape vote for the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) to 3,5 percent – 2,48 percent more than what it received in the 2014 provincial election.

On a 74,7 percent turnout scenario, support for the ACDP drops to 4 percent.

The Economic Freedom fighters (EFF) are also expected to take a knock of 1,11 percent less than the 2,11 percentage points it received in 2014 Western Cape vote.

Northern Cape

ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa will launch the ANC's provincial manifesto.

A total of 626,152 registered voters are expected to head to the polls on 8 May in the Northern Cape whereby the largest portion of voters – approximately 156,081 – are between the ages of 30 and 39 years.

A recent MarkData survey suggests support for the DA in the Northern Cape will increase to 33,6 percent in the 2019 provincial election – 9,71 percent more than what the party received in 2014.

This comes after the DA’s gradual growth in support in the Northern Cape over the various provincial election periods since 1994.
 

On the other hand, the survey suggests support for the ANC in the Northern Cape will fall to 47,7 percent in the 2019 provincial election - 16,7 percent less the party’s result in 2014.

This follows 25 years of ANC rule over the province whereby its best showing was in the 2004 provincial election where it obtained 68,83 percent of the vote.

MarkData’s survey further suggests the EFF’s support in the Northern Cape will increase by 1,44 percent in the 2019 provincial election as compared to the party’s 4,96 percent result in 2014.

Gauteng

ANC in Gauteng is now joining the DA in that often-hated campaign strategy.  This is part of the governing party's plan to retain control in South Africa’s economic heartland. Courtesy #DStv403

6,380,061 registered voters in Gauteng will make their mark on the provincial ballot on 8 May with the largest portion of voters – approximately 1,654,027 - being between the ages of 30 and 39 years.

The ANC’s 25-year rule over Gauteng will, according to MarkData research, be uncontested in this year’s provincial election whereby it has been suggested that the party’s nearest competitor, the DA, will fall by 11,78 percent in its share of the vote from its 30,78 percent election result in 2014.

The research further suggests support for the ANC in Gauteng will grow by 5,81 percent from the 53,59 percent it received in the 2014 election – placing the ANC 40,4 percent ahead of the DA.

The EFF, as suggested by MarkData’s survey, will gain a notable increase of 7,1 percent in the share of the vote in Gauteng in the upcoming election as compared to the 10,3 percent it received in 2014.
 

Eastern Cape

A total of 3,360,584 registered voters in the Eastern Cape will take to the polls in this year’s provincial election whereby the largest portion of voters – approximately 756,972 – are between the ages of 30 and 39 years.

The DA and EFF are expected to make gains in the Eastern Cape in the 2019 provincial election according to MarkData’s survey.

Alternatively, it has been suggested the ANC will receive a 7,99 percent knock from the 70,09 percent share of the vote it received in the 2014 election.

Support for the DA in the Eastern Cape is expected to grow by 9,7 percent from the 16,20 percent it received in the 2014 election whereby the EFF’s support base is expected to increase by 3,62 percent from the 3,48 percent it received in 2014.

Although the EFF is expected to improve its share of the vote in the Eastern Cape in the upcoming provincial election, the United Democratic Movement (UDM) may prove to be the party’s closest competitor after receiving 6,16 percent in 2014.

Free State

Free State PEC member, Thembeni Nxangisa, says the ANC wants to uproot corruption because the party hates it. He says it takes away from the people.

A total of 1,461,513 registered voters in the Free State are expected to take part in this year’s provincial election with the largest portion of voters – approximately 364,911 – being between the ages of 30 and 39 years.

According to MarkData’s survey, the largest change in the share of the vote in the Free State will belong to the DA whereby the party’s support is expected to grow by 14,67 percent from its 16,23 percent result in the 2014 provincial election.

Despite this increase, the survey suggests the DA will fail to surpass the ANC despite the fact that it is expected to lose 11.35 percent of its share of the vote since 2014 – pushing the party down to a total of 58,5 percent.

The research further suggests the EFF will receive a minor gain of 0,45 percent in its share of the vote in the Free State, leaving the party with a total of 8,6 percent.

KwaZulu-Natal

ANC in KwaZulu-Natal is breaking the norm. It’s resolved to remove all its leaders who have been criminally charged from government. In recent years, the party has stuck by its leaders, simply saying that justice should take its course. Courtesy #DStv403

A total of 5,521,832 registered voters in KwaZulu-Natal are expected to make their mark on the provincial ballot paper on 8 May whereby the largest portion of voters – 1,420,499 – are between the ages of 30 and 39 years.

After the past few months of electioneering, KwaZulu-Natal has shown to be one of the most sought-after provinces by the various contending political parties.

During the space between the 1994 and 1999 provincial elections, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) maintained control over KwaZulu-Natal by receiving a 50,32 percent and 41,90 percent share of the vote in each election respectively -- defeating the ANC by 18,09 percent and 2,52 percent respectively.

In the 2004 provincial election, the ANC made its first inroads in KwaZulu-Natal, receiving a 46,98 percent share of the vote – 10,16 percent more than the IFP.

Following the 2004 provincial election, the ANC gradually progressed its share of the vote in the province, peaking at 64,52 percent in the 2014 election.

According to MarkData’s survey, the ANC’s share of the vote may fall by 6,62 percent in KwaZulu-Natal in this year’s provincial election.

On the other hand, the DA’s share of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal is expected to increase from 12,76 percent to 15 percent in the upcoming election – what may be the party’s highest showing in election history.

It has been further suggested the EFF will increase its share of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal by 5,65 percent.

North West

The ANC NEC'S decision to Disband the party's North West provincial leadership has been found to be unlawful and has been set aside. Courtesy #Dstv403

A total of 1,701,456 registered voters in the North West are expected to take to the provincial polls on May, with the largest portion of voters – approximately 427,685 – being between the ages of 30 and 39 years.

The ANC’s grip over the North West has remained uncontested for the past five democratic provincial elections, with its best showing in 1994 – receiving 83,33 percent of the total vote.

While MarkData’s survey suggests the ANC will experience a slight drop of 0,99 percent in the province in the upcoming provincial election, the EFF is expected to increase its share of the vote by 9,89 percent – leaving it with a total of 23,1 percent.

Despite the DA’s claims it will make gains in the North West in this year’s provincial election, the survey suggests the party’s share of the vote will fall from 12,73 percent to 8,8 percent.

Mpumalanga
 

A 47 percent drop in 18- and 19-year-olds registered to vote is cause for concern. The Institute for Security Studies has found that youth participation in politics and voting depends on how satisfied they are with democracy; and the performance of political parties in addressing the socio-economic challenges they face. Courtesy #DStv403

A total of 1,950,769 registered voters in Mpumalanga are expected to take part in this year’s provincial election, with the largest portion of voters – approximately 525,582 – being between the ages of 30 and 39 years.

The Mpumalanga region has been under the ANC’s rule for the past twenty-five years whereby the party’s peak showing was in the 2004 provincial election – receiving a 86,3 percent share of the vote.

The MarkData survey suggests the ANC is likely to maintain its control over Mpumalanga after this year’s provincial election whereby its closest competitor, the DA, is expected to fall by 2,9 percent in its share of the vote.

The survey further suggests the EFF will increase its share of the vote by 0,96 percent.

Limpopo

Members of the EFF were forcefully removed from the Limpopo Provincial Address on Friday. Courtesy #DStv403

Similar to the amount of control the ANC currently has over Mpumalanga, the party’s rule in Limpopo has been spread over the previous five democratic provincial elections, receiving its best showing in 1994 – a 91,63 percent share of the vote.

A total of 2,606,848 registered voters in Limpopo are expected to make their mark in the upcoming provincial election, with the largest portion of voters – approximately 632,746 – being between the ages of 30 and 39 years.

According to the MarkData survey, it is suggested the ANC will remain uncontested in the upcoming provincial election after receiving an expected 4,9 percent increase in its share of the vote, leaving the party with a total of 83,5 percent.

The survey further suggests both the DA and the EFF will experience a decline in their share of the vote in Limpopo, a fall of 0,78 percent and 2,44 percent respectively.

Source
eNCA