POLLS: DA maintains strong lead in Nelson Mandela Bay


This graphic shows results from week eight of the eNCA polls on political party choice in Nelson Mandela Bay.

For your full guide to the 2016 municipal elections, click here.

JOHANNESBURG – The Democratic Alliance (DA) is ahead of the African National Congress (ANC) by 14 percentage points in Nelson Mandela Bay.

This is according to the latest eNCA poll, ahead of the municipal elections on 3 August.

This week 44 percent of survey respondents said they would vote for the DA, an increase of two percentage points from last week.

INFOGRAPHIC: eNCA poll results for Nelson Mandela Bay according to age, race and income demographics.

The ANC increased in support by two points but still lags way behind the DA.

Results for the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) remain the same as last week at six percent.

The number of undecided respondents decreased by five percentage points from last week at 16 percent to 11 percent this week.

The margin of error in the poll results for Nelson Mandela Bay is 6.7 percent.

The United Democratic Movement (UDM) remains the strongest party out of the smaller votes. Their support increased to 2.5 percent this week.

DA mayoral candidate Athol Trollip remains more popular than ANC mayoral candidate Danny Jordaan.

Negative sentiment increased only for the ANC, taking them to a 50 percent result for negative party sentiment. The party’s positive party rating remains the same as last week at 32 percent.

Positive sentiment increased for the DA to 60 percent while their negative sentiment decreased by one point to 18 percent this week.

The EFF decreased in the negative and positive party sentiment rating this week. The party led by Julius Malema polled at 43 percent negative sentiment rating and received a 24 percent positive sentiment rating.

In terms of voter turnout, 89 percent of people polled in Nelson Mandela Bay said they were registered to vote and 91 percent of respondents said they want to vote.

*Polls - methodology and background:

Ipsos, Social & Market Research and Political Polling Specialists undertook an “establishment survey” which was launched at the end of May/beginning of June to recruit eligible voters in the three hotly contested metropolitan areas: the cities of Johannesburg and Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay metro. As mobile phone incidence in these areas are very high, it was decided to use mobile phone interviews for this project. The aim was to recruit a panel of eligible voters who would be asked to participate weekly in a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview) survey, focusing on their party choices and relevant campaign issues. 

As no lists or directory of mobile phone numbers is freely available, lists of mobile numbers were created by computer and these lists were used as the basis of a random digit dialling process to phone would-be respondents. Only respondents in the three metros were recruited, thus a large number of phone calls were made that could not be used for the study. However, it was important to follow a random selection procedure.

In this first part of the process the demographic detail of individuals were recorded and pertinent questions about their views on the country and political parties were asked. One of the questions probed about the party they voted for in the 2014 national election - this was chosen as a baseline as this was the most recent election in the country.

A total of 2,500 panel members were recruited and every week 1,500 of them are phoned back for a 5-minute interview to answer questions on pertinent issues around the Local Government Elections. The results are representative of the opinions in each metropolitan area and are weighted and projected to reflect the views of the eligible voters in each area. These results should be evaluated within the margin of error.  (All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, response rate and sampling methodology used.)

The margin of error for the results of the City of Johannesburg will be between 1.2 percent and 2.8 percent for the City of Tshwane it is between1.6 percent and 3.7 percent and for Nelson Mandela Bay between 2.5 percent and 5.7 percent. As opinion research is not an exact science, results will have to be evaluated keeping these margins of error in mind.

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