The Race: Research underestimates support for Ramaphosa

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Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa greets security personnel at the World Economic Forum on Africa 2017 meeting in Durban, South Africa, May 5, 2017.

Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa greets security personnel at the World Economic Forum on Africa 2017 meeting in Durban, South Africa, May 5, 2017.

JOHANNESBURG - Two of South Africa&39;s nine provinces have voted at ANC Provincial General Council (PGC) meetings.

Most ANC branches in the Western and Northern Cape back Cyril Ramaphosa as party president.

At Sunday’s PGC, 171 out of 145 ANC branches in the Western Cape backed Ramaphosa as their preferred presidential candidate.

Only 13 branches in the Western Cape endorsed Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

Research commissioned by eTV, through MarkData, found four in ten Western Cape ANC respondents support Ramaphosa’s bid - that is, 40 percent.

Of the 569 ANC voters surveyed, 14.5-percent support Dlamini-Zuma.

Two weeks ago at their PGC, 154 branches of 165 in the Northern Cape officially nominated Ramaphosa.

Eleven branches in the Northern Cape backed Dlamini-Zuma.

Research company MarkData found 50-percent of respondents in the Northern Cape support Ramaphosa, while only 12.5-percent of the 58 ANC voters polled in the Northern Cape backed Dlamini-Zuma.

In other words, in both provinces, the numbers from MarkData underestimate support for Rampahosa compared to the PGC results.

The same surveys show slightly inflated support for Dlamini-Zuma, compared to the PGC outcomes.

The Western and Northern Cape will have a combined total of 379 delegates at the elective conference in December. This is less than 10% of the 5,240 delegates set to attend.

In contrast, the Eastern Cape will send one of the largest delegations.

The latest MarkData research shows 53.2-percent of Eastern Cape ANC voter polled support Ramaphosa.

Around 24-percent of the 312 respondents want Dlamini-Zuma as leader.

The Eastern Cape PGC takes place on Thursday.

Delegates vote anonymously at the elective conference, so they could defy branch decisions next month and throw forecasts like these out the window.