South Africa Records 0.5 Percent GDP Growth in Q3, But Still Falls Behind Population Growth
South Africa’s economy grew by 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2025, according to new data from Stats SA. Francis Herd and Aakash Bramdeo describe the figure as a mix of progress and concern. It marks the fourth consecutive quarter of positive GDP growth, showing that the country has avoided recession. But the number is still far below what is needed to create jobs or improve living standards.
The conversation highlights that recent developments had raised hopes for a stronger result. Load shedding eased, confidence improved and the removal of South Africa from the grey list was expected to support faster recovery. However, the 0.5 percent growth rate suggests that these improvements have not yet translated into meaningful economic momentum. This is referred to as a “low-growth equilibrium”, where the economy grows, but not fast enough to change outcomes.
A major issue is population growth. Last year, the population grew by about 1.3 percent, while GDP grew by only 0.6 percent. This year, population growth is projected at 1.1 percent. With the economy growing at just 0.5 percent in the third quarter, output is not keeping pace with demographic change. When population growth exceeds economic growth, the average person becomes poorer.
Treasury’s projection for full-year growth sits at around 1.2 percent. The first two quarters of the year showed growth of 0.1 percent and 0.8 percent, and annualised quarter-on-quarter numbers looked more hopeful at points in the year.
But the final quarter will determine whether the country reaches Treasury’s target.
The implications extend beyond numbers. The matric class of 2025 is about to finish school and enter the job market. With the economy growing at only 0.5 percent, many young people will struggle to find work. The discussion notes that those not going to university may need to seek self-employment, micro-enterprise work or informal opportunities because the private sector and government are not creating enough jobs.
Structural reforms also remain critical. Municipal failures, ports, logistics and energy all influence economic productivity. Even with improvements at Eskom, broader infrastructure and service delivery challenges continue to weigh on growth. Businesses require reliable local government performance to operate efficiently and expand.
South Africa’s 0.5 percent GDP number shows an economy that is growing, but too slowly to shift unemployment, reduce poverty or meaningfully improve living standards. It reflects both resilience and vulnerability. The country has avoided contraction, but has not yet unlocked the momentum needed for inclusive growth. Until growth consistently exceeds population growth, economic pressure on households will remain.