JOHANNESBURG - South Africa’s consumer food price inflation eased to 3.7 percent in February 2026, down from 4.0 percent in January, according to the latest data from Statistics South Africa.
Chief Economist at Agbiz, Wandile Sihlobo, says the moderation aligns with earlier expectations that food inflation would soften this year, supported by strong domestic and global supply.
"Essentially, the lower grain, fruit and vegetable prices on the back of ample domestic and global supplies, and moderating vegetable oil prices, are among the factors that will underpin the softening of price inflation," he said.
Sihlobo added that meat prices currently present minimal inflationary risk.
He said early indications for the 2025/26 summer grains and oilseeds season remain positive, with the first production estimate at 19.82 million tonnes.
Despite recent flooding in parts of Limpopo and Mpumalanga, he noted that the impact on vegetables appears limited, as the floods occurred after the potato harvesting season.
However, Sihlobo warned that rising fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict could threaten the current outlook.
"The fuel price remains a major upside risk, as it accounts for a substantial share of the distribution of food products,” he said.
He explained that while fuel accounts for about 13 percent of grain farmers’ input costs, farmers are generally unable to pass these costs directly onto consumers, except through future production decisions.
Overall, Sihlobo expects food price inflation to continue slowing in 2026, although external pressures -- particularly fuel costs -- could alter the trajectory.