South Africa’s automotive industry sits at a pressure point: Consumers are watching every rand, global supply chains remain complex, and local manufacturing is competing in a world where scale matters.
Now add proposed tariff increases on imported Chinese vehicles and you’ve got a live debate with real household consequences.
In this episode of Making Sense, Gareth Edwards speaks to Auto Trader CEO George Mienie to unpack what tariffs are designed to do, and what they often do in practice.
1. Tariffs don’t land on manufacturers first, they land on buyers
The most immediate impact is simple: If import costs rise, the purchase price tends to rise with it. Whatever the policy intention, the consumer often absorbs the shock at the end of the chain. That is why tariff conversations quickly become affordability conversations.
2. The market is shifting from badge to value
A key theme is how buyers are changing. The old status logic is fading for many households, replaced by value calculations and total cost thinking. When budgets tighten, consumers become less sentimental and more strategic. That shift matters because it changes who wins and loses when pricing changes.
3. The second hand market becomes the pressure valve, then it heats up too
When new vehicles become more expensive, more buyers look to the second hand market for value.
That demand can push used prices higher, which means a tariff driven increase in one lane can end up lifting prices across the broader ecosystem. It is a knock on effect many people miss until they feel it.
4. If the goal is local manufacturing, tariffs cannot be the only move
The conversation also widens to the uncomfortable truth that local manufacturing is not just about finished vehicles.
Many locally manufactured vehicles rely on imported components and raw materials. If policy only targets imported finished cars while leaving costs high for inputs, the competitiveness problem remains.
In other words, if South Africa wants to stimulate local manufacturing, there are “next steps” beyond tariffs, including addressing the broader cost structure that local producers operate within.
5. The long view: competitiveness, exports and what to watch next
South Africa’s automotive sector is also tied to exports and global market shifts, including the energy transition and the changing demands of international buyers.
The core question becomes less about blocking competition and more about building durability: What would make South African manufacturing more competitive, more future proof, and less vulnerable to global shifts?
This is why the episode lands on a watch this space note. Proposed tariffs may be a headline, but the real story is what South Africa does next: Whether it builds a smarter ecosystem for manufacturing and affordability, or whether consumers carry the cost while the structural problems stay put.