Making Sense of the Markets Flipping When the Mood Changes
Global markets had a moment of calm this week, and it changed everything.
In the latest episode of Making Sense, Gareth Edwards and Francis Herd unpack how easing geopolitical tensions, renewed diplomatic engagement and shifting US trade policy triggered a sharp reversal in market behaviour. The rand weakened, gold fell and the JSE felt the pressure, all after weeks where uncertainty had been driving gains.
The discussion begins with Donald Trump’s latest moves, including renewed talks with Iran, signals of improved relations with China and the extension of AGOA. While these developments brought relief to global markets, they also exposed contradictions in US trade policy, particularly the continued presence of punitive tariffs alongside preferential trade access.
Attention then turns to South Africa’s deepening relationship with Afreximbank. Gareth and Francis explain the origins of the bank, its role in supporting African trade and why a recent downgrade by Fitch has sparked debate rather than panic. The conversation explores the credibility of global credit ratings, longstanding concerns about how African institutions are assessed and whether alternative financial structures can operate outside traditional market frameworks.
The scale of South Africa’s borrowing is a central focus. With billions earmarked for industrial policy, beneficiation and regional trade, the episode interrogates both the opportunity and the risk. Questions around governance, transparency and the management of transformation funding are raised, not as conclusions but as issues that demand continued scrutiny.
Rather than offering neat takeaways, this episode of Making Sense embraces complexity. It is a reminder that markets respond to mood as much as data, and that economic clarity often arrives only after the noise settles.
Catch up on all Making Sense episodes here: https://enca.prod.acquia-sites.com/making-sense-podcast