The Pulse of the Nation: Are We Reading South Africa’s Economy Right Before Budget 2026?
South Africa is walking into Budget 2026 with a familiar temptation: believing the good news is the whole story.
On paper, the mood has improved. The country has benefited from stronger commodity conditions, and confidence has lifted off the floor. But that’s exactly the danger point; the moment where a short-term upswing can get mistaken for a structural shift.
In Making Sense, Gareth Edwards sits down with Chris Hattingh, Executive Director at the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA), to ask a blunt question: is the hype justified, or are we setting ourselves up for disappointment when the global cycle changes?
A key thread in the conversation is how South Africa “wins” when commodities run hot; and how that win can be deceptive. Commodity gains don’t automatically rebuild heavy industry. They don’t automatically expand construction. They don’t automatically create jobs in the sectors that absorb large numbers of people. The country can look healthier without becoming healthier.
That’s why Hattingh pushes a bigger idea: we should be measuring progress by the breadth of growth, not just the brightness of headlines. A modest growth improvement can matter; but it can’t become the finish line. If the economy is growing in a way that doesn’t spread across key sectors, the lived reality stays stuck: unemployment remains high, services keep failing, and the gap between “macro improvement” and daily experience widens.
The conversation also highlights that some progress is real precisely because it takes hard, unglamorous work. Credibility is built slowly; through institutions doing their jobs, through consistent governance, and through follow-through that survives beyond the news cycle. When those signals appear, they matter. But they still need to convert into the practical outcomes that define stability: job creation, investment confidence, and functioning infrastructure.
And that’s where Budget 2026 becomes more than a speech. Hattingh’s expectation is not a dramatic shake-up, but continuity; and in South Africa’s recent context, continuity can be a meaningful signal. The bigger question is what “continuation” actually funds, protects and fixes.
Social relief will remain part of the picture because it is part of the country’s reality. But the episode keeps circling back to the same pressure point: infrastructure, delivery and implementation. Not as an abstract concept; as a daily-life issue. Water systems, maintenance, basic repairs, fixing leaks, and restoring reliability before chasing expensive new builds. The kind of work that isn’t glamorous, but changes outcomes fast when it’s done properly.
So, what’s the pulse of the nation right now?
Better than it was, but not where it should be. The optimism has ingredients that can fade quickly if the global environment shifts. The deeper work requires consistency, scale, and a budget that prioritises delivery over announcements.
Budget 2026 may not deliver fireworks. But it could quietly reveal something more important: whether South Africa is building a virtuous cycle that compounds over time; or whether we’re about to confuse a momentary lift with a long-awaited turnaround.