JOHANNESBURG - The eNCA MarkData poll released today shows the DA is leading the ANC among likely voters in both Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay.
But it is building up to a close result when the voters decide on 4 November – very close.
The eNCA Markdata poll shows the DA leading the ANC by 37.7% to 37.4% in Nelson Mandela Bay, and by 31,2% to 29,4% in Ekurhuleni.
The margin of error for Ekurhuleni is 3,07%, and for Nelson Mandela Bay it is 3,11%.
To see the full relevant election polling data for Ekurhuleni, click here. To see the full relevant election polling data for Nelson Mandela Bay, click here.
The poll (see the methodology explainer here) was conducted in the country’s top six metros (Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Nelson Mandela Bay and Cape Town) from 10 August to 12 September, using telephone and face to face interviews in the preferred language of the respondent.
Compared to the 2024 provincial results, the ANC has fallen from 38,2% to 37,4% in Nelson Mandela Bay and in Ekurhuleni from 34,9% to 29,4%.
READ: eNCA MarkData Election Survey | Nelson Mandela Bay results are in
DA support in Nelson Mandela Bay has increased from 36,2% to 37,7%, and in Ekurhuleni from 26,8% to 31,2%.
The polling results show very strong growth for the EFF among young voters (18 to 24 years old) in several metros across the country.
In Ekurhuleni, for instance, although the EFF polls only 9,2% in total, it is supported by 24,5% of likely voters aged 18 to 24 in the metro.
Compared to 2024, EFF support in Nelson Mandela Bay has dropped from 11% to 8%, and in Ekurhuleni from 12,5% to 9,2%.
It finds the MK Party to be a strong factor in Ekurhuleni, allowing for the fact that the poll was taken before leader Jacob Zuma’s current grave illness.
MK support in Ekurhuleni is measured at 11,5%, which is down from 13.6% in 2024.
MK support in Nelson Mandela Bay has risen from 0.9% in 2024 to 3,2% in this poll.
If the polling figures hold, election night will be a time for celebration at ActionSA headquarters.
The party is showing strong growth in potential support country-wide compared to the 2021 elections.
READ: eNCA MarkData Election Survey | Ekurhuleni results are in
In Ekurhuleni, ActionSA polls at 6,1% up from 2,9% in 2024 and in Nelson Mandela Bay at 3,4%, which is up from 0,5% two years ago
The Freedom Front Plus is putting in a firmer than expected showing in Ekurhuleni, at 5,2%, up from 2% in 2024.
In Nelson Mandela Bay, its polled support is at 2,3%, whereas it polled 1,3% in 2024.
In Nelson Mandela Bay, the Patriotic Alliance is supported by 4% of respondents, down from 6,5% two years ago and in Ekurhuleni by 2,5%, up from 1,9% in 2024.
The party bleeding support across the country at this stage of the election cycle is the ANC.
The precipitous drop in its voter support is most dramatic in metros it currently governs or co-governs,
with the ANC being blamed for poor delivery of municipal services by a hefty majority of voters surveyed for this poll.