PRETORIA - The Democratic Alliance is leading the race in Tshwane, while the African National Congress is losing support to several rival parties, according to the latest eNCA-MarkData survey projections.
The projections put the DA in first place ahead of the upcoming local government elections, with the ANC in second position, followed by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), ActionSA and the Freedom Front Plus.
However, the DA remains short of an outright majority, meaning it could need coalition partners to govern the capital.
Elections analyst Wayne Sussman says the survey points to a significant shift in Tshwane’s political landscape, with the ANC losing support to competing parties.
While the DA can take encouragement from leading the race, Sussman says it may struggle to form a stable coalition without the ANC.
The projections suggest that no single party is likely to secure an outright majority, making coalition negotiations potentially decisive in determining the city’s next government.
One of the survey’s most striking findings concerns Tshwane Mayor Nasiphi Moya’s standing among voters.
Moya, who represents ActionSA, scored 25.9% in the mayoral preference measure, well ahead of her party’s 10.7% party support.
Meanwhile, former Tshwane mayor Cilliers Brink is polling below the DA’s party support, according to Sussman’s analysis.
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The figures suggest Moya’s personal profile and visibility as the city’s current mayor may be attracting support beyond ActionSA’s established voter base.
Sussman says the findings highlight the importance of name recognition and public perceptions of individual political leaders.
Moya’s strong personal polling could give ActionSA influence in post-election coalition negotiations. However, the challenge for the party will be converting her personal support into votes for ActionSA.