Six Cities Cannot Speak for an Entire Country. But They Can Tell Us Where to Look.
The completion of the eNCA/MarkData metropolitan election survey reveals sharply different political landscapes across South Africa's major cities. Understanding those differences may be more valuable than trying to turn them into a single national prediction.
There is something seductive about a political poll that produces one big number. It promises to reduce an entire electorate to a manageable answer: which party is gaining support, which is losing ground and where the country might be heading. But South Africa's local government elections resist that simplicity. Voters are electing councils responsible for very different communities, with distinct political histories, service-delivery records and local challenges.
The completion of the eNCA/MarkData survey across six metropolitan municipalities offers an opportunity to understand those differences. More than 6,000 respondents were surveyed across Cape Town, Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini and Nelson Mandela Bay. Together, their responses provide a substantial body of evidence about metropolitan political attitudes. They do not, however, amount to a nationally representative assessment of voting intentions.
That distinction becomes especially important when the individual results are placed alongside one another.
The same election, different political landscapes
In eThekwini, the MK Party measures 48% support, compared with 14.5% for the ANC. In Tshwane, the DA measures 33.9%, followed by the ANC at 24.9%, while the EFF and ActionSA also attract double-digit support. Cape Town's survey puts the DA above 50%, while Johannesburg's results point to support being distributed across several substantial parties.
These figures describe different political environments rather than variations of one national contest. Even where parties are competing under the same national banners, their local organisation, governing histories and relationships with communities can differ considerably.
It would therefore be misleading to assume that the political dynamics measured in eThekwini apply equally to smaller KwaZulu-Natal municipalities, or that Tshwane's party preferences describe Gauteng as a whole.
The political meaning of a number depends partly on where it comes from.
Dissatisfaction does not produce one predictable response
The surveys also reveal significant criticism of municipal performance. Residents across several metros express dissatisfaction with how their cities are run, particularly concerning essential services. Yet the parties attracting support differ sharply between municipalities.
This raises an important question about political accountability: when residents are unhappy with local government, how do they decide whom to support instead?
It is tempting to treat dissatisfaction as proof that respondents will abandon an incumbent party. But voting choices are influenced by more than service-delivery assessments. Political identity, local leadership, party organisation, community concerns and perceptions of available alternatives may all matter.
Crucially, comparing separate aggregate poll figures cannot establish what individual voters are thinking. To determine whether the same respondents who criticise municipal services intend to change their votes, researchers would need to examine the relevant individual-level data.
Without that evidence, political punishment remains a hypothesis rather than a demonstrated relationship.
What six metros reveal, and what remains outside the frame
The geographic coverage of the survey is both its strength and its limitation. Large metropolitan municipalities contain substantial electorates, complex economies and important concentrations of political power. Their results deserve careful attention.
But South Africa also includes smaller cities, towns and rural municipalities, where political competition can be shaped by different circumstances. The six surveyed metros cannot automatically represent those voters.
Nor can the six results simply be averaged to produce a national party-support figure. A meaningful combined estimate would require appropriate weighting and a clearly defined population. Even a properly weighted six-metro aggregate would still describe those surveyed metropolitan electorates, not the entire country.
The most useful contribution of this research may therefore be the questions it makes possible. Where is party competition becoming more fragmented? How do perceptions of municipal performance differ? Where do preferred political leaders and party choices diverge? And which patterns persist when researchers examine age groups, geography and turnout?
Those questions move the discussion beyond the search for a single political headline.
A national election result is built from millions of individual choices made in particular places. The value of these six metropolitan surveys lies in helping us understand some of those places more clearly, while reminding us how much of South Africa still sits beyond the frame.
References
· eNCA/MarkData — eThekwini election survey results, 25 October 2026: https://www.enca.com/news-shows-top-stories/enca-markdata-election-survey-ethekwini-results-are
· eNCA/MarkData — Tshwane election survey results, 25 October 2026: https://www.enca.com/news-shows-top-stories/enca-markdata-election-survey-tshwane-results-are
· eNCA — 6,113 voters, six metros: Inside MarkData's election survey: https://www.enca.com/news/6113-voters-six-metros-inside-markdatas-election-survey
· SA Explained, 27 October 2026 — Naledi Moleo in conversation with Wayne Sussman; supplied episode transcript.
Catch up on all SA Explained episodes here: https://www.enca.com/sa-explained-podcast