SA’s electricity crisis | Warning of a dark winter ahead

JOHANNESBURG - The country’s coal fleet availability is significantly low.

That’s according to energy expert, Prof Sampson Mamphweli.

Mamphweli says if the situation doesn’t change, we are most likely to find ourselves in Stage 8 power cuts this winter.

READ: SA's electricity crisis | Is this really Stage 6?

When I look at the numbers, the energy availability factor of the coal fleet is still hovering very low," he said.

"Sometimes it's below 50 percent. Eskom is doing a lot to push it up."

Mamphweli said it is expected that demand is going to shoot up to between 34,000 and 35,000MW.

READ: Ramokgopa: 'Worse case scenario would be beyond stage 6'

"When Eskom fixes some of these power stations and they bring them back, some units break down," he said.

"The planned maintenance is being delayed in terms return some of the units back to service.

"If all that I have said has not changed, we’re most likely to go back to Stage 8 or even Stage 9 load-shedding.”

Meanwhile, Eskom's Acting GCEO, Calib Cassim has admitted it will be a difficult winter.

READ: Power cut stages to be lowered

He opened the inaugural Demand Side Management Indaba where roleplayers from the private and public sectors are expected to propose demand management solutions.

"What we're trying from an Eskom perspective, we're trying to minimise load-shedding," Cassim said.

"It is going to be a tight winter. Last year this time we still had Kusile 1,2 and 3.

"This winter we don't have it. There's going to be a lot of challenges up until the end of August."