2.6%: Why Global Growth Isn’t the Good News It Sounds Like
At first glance, 2.6% global growth sounds reassuring.
The World Bank has raised its forecast, and the global economy has weathered trade tensions, tariffs, and geopolitical shocks better than many predicted. In that sense, the world has proved more resilient than expected.
But as Francis Herd explains in this episode of Number of the Day, resilience is not the same as recovery.
Global growth is actually lower than last year and well below the pre-COVID average of around 3.2%. According to the World Bank, the world may now be stuck in a structurally slower growth phase; a reality with long-term consequences.
For South Africa, the picture is even more complex. The country tracked global growth trends until around 2010, but since then has fallen behind. While projections for 2025 and 2026 show modest improvement, growth remains too weak to meaningfully reduce unemployment or raise living standards.
As the episode makes clear, economic growth is not an abstract concept. It determines jobs, incomes, tax revenue, and whether everyday life gets easier or harder.
The number of the day is 2.6%; and it tells a story that’s far from simple.
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