2 Billion Feet: Nike, China and the Market America Is Watching
Nike once looked at China and saw more than a country.
It saw feet.
That is the image at the centre of this Number of the Day conversation between Gareth Edwards and Francis Herd. The number is 2 billion, drawn from the idea that China’s 1.41 billion people represent roughly 2 billion feet. For a company built around shoes, that is not just a statistic. It is a business opportunity.
Francis explains that Nike’s founder went into China at a time when the country was still poor, but saw that it was going to rise. There were around 1 billion people then. The thinking was simple: if China grew, Nike could grow with it.
And for a long time, that logic made sense.
Nike became one of the iconic American brands that benefited from global expansion. China formed part of that story. But the episode is not only about how Nike entered China. It is about what happens when the market starts to change.
Francis says Nike is now struggling and that its share price is down sharply from its 2021 peak. More importantly, she says the brand is no longer cool in China. That line carries the real tension of the episode.
The conversation then moves into President Donald Trump’s visit to China with a group of American executives. Gareth and Francis use Nike as a way into a broader question: what is at stake for US companies that still want access to China’s massive market?
The answer is not limited to sneakers.
Francis points to Chinese consumers making and buying their own shoes. She says young people are seeing Chinese brands as cooler, possibly better, and that reviewers have found the performance to be as good. In her framing, something Trump wants to happen in America is already happening in China: consumers supporting their own companies.
From there, the discussion widens to technology. Gareth mentions Nvidia’s boss and Elon Musk as part of the broader business context. Francis explains that Nvidia makes chips that fuel AI advancement and wants access to the Chinese market. But advanced chips are also tied to strategic advantage, which makes the US-China conversation more complicated.
The episode also touches on Taiwan, US arms sales, Iran, tariffs and the question of whether America’s old advantages are being eroded. Francis says US exceptionalism has long been tied to innovation and high-tech products, but China is now making inroads there too.
Gareth brings the point closer to South Africa by noting the number of Chinese vehicle brands now visible locally. He describes them as good quality, well-priced and highly competitive.
That is where the story lands.
2 billion feet once represented Nike’s opportunity in China. Now it represents a larger question for American companies: what happens when the market they want to sell into begins choosing more of its own products?
This transcript-true version is now much safer for publication.
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