Almost 1 Million, and the country’s budget dilemma
A number can be true and still feel impossible. Fewer than one million people contributing around 60% of personal income tax is one of those numbers.
It reads like a loophole in reality, until you remember what personal income tax means in South Africa: It is one of the largest pillars of revenue.
When that pillar rests on a small group, the entire system becomes sensitive to shocks.
The concentration is not just a fairness debate. It is a sustainability debate. A narrow base means less room for government to manoeuvre. Push rates too hard and you risk resistance, avoidance, or economic behaviour that shrinks the base further.
Do nothing and the pressure keeps rising as costs increase and demands on the state expand. That is why policy conversations keep circling back to the same trio: broaden the base, improve compliance, and use resources smarter.
But the real story is not only in spreadsheets. It is in sentiment. Many taxpayers feel they are not just paying the state, they are paying for substitutes. Private security. Private schooling. Backup power.
Water solutions. It creates a psychological break: people stop feeling like contributors to a shared project and start feeling like customers who are not getting what they paid for. That shift matters because compliance is not only about enforcement. It is also about trust.
So, what should listeners watch as the Budget lands?
The obvious headline will be tax. The deeper test will be whether the plan speaks convincingly to growth and jobs.
Because the only durable way to relieve a concentrated tax base is to grow the economy in a way that pulls more people into work, and into contribution.
Without that, “almost one million” stops being a statistic and becomes a warning.