THE NEXT ENERGY CRISIS MAY BE A QUESTION OF WHO GETS THE POWER
For years, South Africa’s electricity debate was painfully simple: could Eskom keep the lights on? That question has not disappeared, but a stronger generation fleet has created a more complicated one. Eskom says it entered winter with around 6GW of surplus peak capacity, meaning the country suddenly has something scarcity rarely allows: choice.
Choice, however, can be more difficult to manage than shortage. Once spare capacity exists, pressure follows to put it to work. Factories, mines, electric transport, new housing and digital infrastructure all compete, directly or indirectly, for the same underlying resource. Data centres have become especially attractive because the global AI boom is driving extraordinary demand for computing infrastructure and the electricity needed to run it. Goldman Sachs Research expects data-centre power demand to rise sharply through the end of the decade.
POWER IS BECOMING AN INDUSTRIAL POLICY
The countries that benefit most from the AI economy may not simply be those producing the best software. Increasingly, they will also be the places able to provide reliable electricity, land, connectivity, cooling and regulatory certainty at scale.
South Africa already has a meaningful foothold. President Cyril Ramaphosa said in February that 55 data centres had been built, with more than R50 billion in additional investment expected over the next three years. That turns electricity reliability into something larger than a household-service issue. It becomes part of the country’s investment proposition.
But this is where the conversation needs to mature. Attracting an electricity-intensive industry is not automatically the same thing as creating broad economic value. The important questions are what the investment leaves behind, how much local capability it develops, whether infrastructure expands alongside demand, and what obligations the electricity system assumes in return.
TODAY’S SURPLUS CAN BECOME TOMORROW’S COMMITMENT
A gigawatt that is unused today looks like wasted opportunity. A gigawatt contractually committed for years looks very different when circumstances change.
Large data centres cannot simply switch off whenever the grid becomes uncomfortable. Their attraction rests partly on uninterrupted supply. That makes long-term electricity agreements strategic decisions, not ordinary sales contracts.
South Africa therefore needs to think beyond filling spare capacity. If major new loads are added, generation, transmission and flexibility must grow with them. Otherwise, a successful investment drive could gradually consume the very buffer that made the country attractive in the first place.
This is not an argument for keeping electricity idle. It is an argument for treating reliable power as national economic infrastructure, rather than inventory that needs to be cleared.
THE REAL OPPORTUNITY IS TO BUILD A BIGGER SYSTEM
South Africa’s stronger electricity position can become a competitive advantage, but only if the ambition is larger than finding buyers for excess megawatts.
The more powerful strategy is to use new demand to justify more generation, stronger grids, deeper technical skills and a broader digital economy. Then data centres become one component of expansion rather than simply another large consumer.
Scarcity taught South Africa how expensive insufficient electricity can be. Surplus now offers a different lesson: having power is valuable, but deciding what that power should build may matter even more.
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