–9: Confidence Up… But Still Negative
South Africa’s Consumer Confidence Index for the fourth quarter sits at –9, a number that captures the uneasy mood of households heading into the festive season. On paper, the economic outlook has pockets of improvement; inflation has moderated, interest rates have held steady, and business confidence in some sectors has picked up. But consumers, especially those in the low- to middle-income range, remain deeply cautious. This tension between macro-level optimism and household-level strain is at the heart of today’s Number of the Day.
As Francis Herd and Rofhiwa Madzena unpack in this episode, a reading of –9 does not represent collapse, but it does indicate persistent pessimism. Most consumers still feel financially worse off than a year ago and, more importantly, do not expect significant improvement in the short term. These expectations matter: they shape spending decisions, determine how families approach debt and savings, and influence retailers’ performance during the year’s busiest spending period.
The data shows that consumers earning between R5,000 and R20,000 per month; often referred to as the “working middle”; are the most strained. This is the group squeezed hardest by food inflation, municipal tariffs, electricity unreliability, transport costs and interest-rate adjustments that have accumulated over the last two years. While wealthier households may absorb shocks and lower-income households rely more heavily on grants, this middle band is exposed to the rising cost of living without the relief mechanisms available to other groups.
Despite this, the –9 number is an improvement from the deeper lows recorded earlier in the year. The “financial outlook” sub-index has lifted slightly, and fewer households believe their finances will worsen over the next 12 months. But, as the hosts explain, improvement does not mean positivity; it simply means the pessimism is moderating. Households are still delaying major purchases, prioritising essentials and approaching debt cautiously.
The editorial also highlights the disconnect between consumer confidence and business sentiment. According to the BER, building confidence is at a ten-year high, supported by private sector demand and improved activity in certain construction segments. However, businesses responding positively doesn’t automatically translate into an uplift in household confidence; especially when day-to-day living remains expensive.
Another important factor is trust. Consumers need to trust that inflation will remain contained, that load shedding won’t escalate, that the job market will improve, and that policy decisions will create a predictable environment. Without this trust, even the slightest improvements feel fragile.
Ultimately, –9 is a number that signals a slow, uneven recovery rather than a turning point. It reflects the reality that households are still under pressure and are responding with caution rather than confidence. As Francis and Rofhiwa emphasise, the key question now is whether South Africa can translate macro-level stability into real relief for households; the kind that moves confidence out of negative territory and builds genuine momentum heading into 2026.