Elections analyst unpacks ANC performance in by-elections

JOHANNESBURG - It’s been a tough few weeks for the ANC and the latest blow comes from a place very close to home. 

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Hyde Park’s Ward 90 where President Cyril Ramaphosa lives, recently held a by-election.

The DA didn’t just win it but shot up from 64% of the vote the last time the ward was up for grabs to a jaw-dropping 97%.

It raises some big questions about what's happening to ANC support in the country's biggest metro, and whether the party's newly appointed Joburg leaders can claw back the ground they're losing.

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Elections analyst Wayne Sussman said, "the ANC lost some wards in the most recent by-elections, some in the Eastern Cape, some in the Northern Cape which was a surprise and some in Kwa-Zulu Natal."

"If we go back to the 2024 election, the ANC's biggest detractor, the party that  affected them the most was MK Party in KZN, where we saw the ANC support decline dramatically."

"What we have seen since the 2024 election, is that the ANC has been able to claw back some (not all) but some support." 

"So one could argue that as we close this electoral year in 2025 that the ANC is slightly stronger but they're a long way off from what they were achieving under Jacob Zuma and what they achieved in the 2021 local government elections under president Cyril Ramaphosa," Sussman said.

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