DOHA - Max Verstappen is seeking a hat-trick of wins at the Qatar Grand Prix this weekend as this year's Formula One world championship reaches boiling point in the Arabian Gulf.
But he will know, better than most, that even with luck on his side he is unlikely to overhaul a 24-point deficit that separates him from McLaren's Lando Norris as they approach the final two events of the season.
Despite being disqualified along with McLaren team-mate and title rival Oscar Piastri, after finishing second at the Las Vegas Grand Prix last Sunday, Norris arrives in Qatar as favourite to lift his first title and clinch McLaren's first team-and-driver double since Mika Hakkinen's success in 1998.
The 26-year-old Briton needs only to hold his nerve and out-score his rivals by two points to leave Qatar as champion on Sunday night.
Of the three, Norris is the only one who has an opportunity to take the crown this weekend.
Having won it four times in a row, Verstappen has the experience and mentality on his side while nerves and apprehension eat at Norris and the seemingly luckless Piastri appears to flounder in search of his recently lost form.
A multitude of scenarios have been thrown up as possibilities, but it is clear that with a substantial cushion Norris has the simplest task and least reason to take risks in Saturday's sprint race and Sunday's floodlit Grand Prix.
Verstappen has closed a 104-point gap behind then-leader Piastri since the start of September with a phenomenal surge of form that has left McLaren fans biting their nails and considering the wisdom of the team's honourable decision to allow their drivers to fight each other.