File: South African Rands. GettyImages/RapidEye
JOHANNESBURG - Here's a view of the numbers that highlight South Africa's political economy in the last week. Catch more of this, daily, on eNCA's "Number of the Day" podcast across all platforms.
01 December "PMI Falls to 42, Signalling South Africa’s Weakest Factory Conditions Since Covid"
Sharp contraction in factory activity signals renewed economic strain despite earlier signs of recovery.
South Africa’s manufacturing PMI has plunged to 42, signalling a sharp contraction that contradicts earlier signs of economic improvement and marking the weakest reading since the 2020 lockdowns. The drop reflects collapsing demand, weakening production and limited job creation capacity, all of which threaten an economy already struggling with high unemployment and inequality. Although factory managers are cautiously optimistic about conditions improving in six months, the current slump underscores fragile growth and the urgency of boosting confidence, investment and industrial capacity.
Economy avoids recession but remains in low-growth that cannot keep up with population pressures.
South Africa’s economy grew 0.5% in Q3 2025, marking a fourth quarter of positive growth but still far below levels needed to lift living standards or create jobs. Despite improvements such as reduced load shedding and greylist removal, the country remains stuck in a low-growth equilibrium where economic expansion lags behind population growth, leaving households under pressure. The result underscores resilience but also deep structural constraints, with slow growth limiting opportunities for new job-seekers and delaying genuine, inclusive economic momentum.
03 December "South Africa’s Petrol Price Increases by 29 Cents as Refining Capacity Collapses"
Fuel hikes driven by collapsed refining capacity expose South Africa to costly imports and rising inflation risks.
South Africa’s 29-cent petrol increase stems not from oil or currency pressures—which are favourable—but from the country’s reduced refining capacity that forces it to import most fuel at higher international prices. With major refineries offline and policy delays hindering new energy projects, the economy is increasingly exposed to global fuel costs, raising risks for energy security. The hike also lifts diesel prices, feeding inflation and signalling deeper structural failures that will keep consumers vulnerable to future price shocks.
04 December "The Rand Breaks Through R17 as Global Conditions Shift"
Stronger rand reflects softer US dollar and improved investor sentiment, but remains vulnerable to global shifts.
The rand’s return to R17 per dollar—its strongest level in nearly three years—reflects a weaker US dollar, high local interest rates that attract investors, and improving domestic sentiment after a ratings upgrade and stabilising debt. The stronger currency eases import and inflation pressures, signalling renewed confidence even as analysts see potential for further gains. But much of the momentum comes from global forces, leaving South Africa vulnerable to shifts in US policy and global risk appetite.