JOHANNESBURG - As Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) leader Julius Malema heads to his sentencing on Thursday in the firearm discharge case, this could be a turning point.
Not just for the man who leads the Red Berets, but the political party itself.
For over a decade, the EFF has been attached to Malema because of his power of speech, leadership style, and the ability to mobilise support.
But the party now faces a defining test: Can it survive beyond its founding figure, Malema?
Party built around one man
Political expert Brutas Malada doubts that the EFF can survive without Malema, should he end up in jail.
At the centre of his argument is the fact that within the party itself, there is no one who can take over and lead to give EFF the prominence that Malema has given it.
This, Malada said, is because Malema has arranged the EFF around himself.
“The EFF is a cult of personality, without Malema, there is no EFF.”
Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema (C) arrives at the KuGompo City Regional court in East London on April 15, 2026 for his sentencing for firing an assault rifle at a rally eight years ago.
Consequence of 'reckless behaviour'
Malema's legal troubles stem from 28 July 2018, during an EFF rally held in Mdantsane.
On that day, Malema fired a rifle in the air, allegedly belonging to a security company of which Adrian Snyman, Malema’s co-accused, was the director.
READ | Court finds Julius Malema guilty in gun case
Malema was found guilty of unlawful possession of a firearm, unlawful possession of ammunition, discharge of a firearm in a built-up area, failure to take reasonable precautions to person or property, and reckless endangerment to person or property.
His former bodyguard, Adriaan Snyman, who was charged alongside him, was acquitted.
It was AfriForum who laid the criminal charges against Malema.
The state wants Malema jailed for 15 years. However, he intends to appeal.
Malema returned to the East London Regional Court on Wednesday for pre-sentencing proceedings, but the matter was adjourned until Thursday.
There are aspects of the sentence still to be decided.
READ | EFF: Case against Malema 'direct attack' on party
But when he exited the courtroom to address his supporters who gathered outside in solidarity with him, he remained unshaken, saying he would not end up in jail and that he would go home like everyone else.
Malema struck a resolute tone, saying the sentence will not deter him from the vision of the EFF.
"They can imprison me, but they can never imprison my ideas. They will never suppress the idea of economic freedom in our lifetime," he said.
Malada deemed Malema’s behaviour in 2018 as "stupid, reckless, and a regrettable endangering" the lives of the very members and supporters of the EFF he prides himself on.
He said the consequences that Malema is seeing now are self-inflicted.
“He shot himself in the foot, crippling the EFF in the process, paralysing and stifling the prospects of the EFF in the coming elections,” he said.
Malada said Malema must account for his actions in court and must not be treated with any exception, irrespective of the political position that he holds.
“If he is found guilty, he must serve his sentence,” he added.
Fraternising with the MKP to rope in support
Around late March this year, former President Jacob Zuma and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) delegation visited Malema's family, following the passing of his aunt, Mme Martha Malema.
READ | Zuma: “We must come together” — MK delegation visits Malema's home
Malada, as he continues to unpack the future of EFF as sentence looms, he weighed in on this visit saying the EFF fraternising with the MKP is opportunistic, and an arrangement of convenience.
“There must be something that he wants to get, maybe support, when he starts protesting against the courts. We know that Zuma has utilised that strategy very effectively to mobilise crowds to the courts.
“Maybe he wants to take a leaf from him. I mean, birds of a feather flock together,” he said.
A supporter holds a placard of Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema as they gather ahead of his arrival at the KuGompo City Regional court in East London on April 15, 2026 for his sentencing for firing an assault rifle at a rally eight years ago.
Sympathy vote for local elections
The question of support weighs heavily during this time for the EFF, as the local elections date draws closer.
Will the people vote for the EFF if Malema is not there?
Malada speaks of what he calls a sympathy vote.
But this will only be a temporary gain.
“There could be people who feel very strongly that he has been mistreated and support him, but it's not sustainable. It will be a sympathy vote for a short time,’ he said.
But until then, all eyes remain on the court proceedings.