50%: The Tariff Idea That Sounds Simple - Until You Price It
“Fifty percent” is one of those numbers that arrives like a slap: it’s loud, clean, and instantly political. But in today’s Number of the Day, Francis Herd and Gareth Edwards make the point that the story isn’t actually about a single number; it’s about a balancing act that South Africa has failed before, and can’t afford to get wrong again.
The episode opens with the core claim: South Africa is considering a higher tariff on vehicle imports from China and India after an influx of cheaper models. Francis immediately adds the crucial nuance: the “50%” is being discussed as an upper limit - the maximum level allowed under global trade rules - and the real range being weighed sits between the current 25% and that ceiling. In other words, the headline is a possibility, not a done deal.
From there, the conversation does what this podcast does best: it turns policy into lived experience.
The first tension: consumer choice vs industrial survival
Gareth voices the obvious consumer-side argument: cheaper imports can be good for buyers because it increases choice. Francis agrees that’s the appeal and then flips the lens to the manufacturing side. South Africa has spent years attracting global automakers to build locally, partly because factories don’t just produce cars; they produce jobs, skills pipelines, and an entire supplier ecosystem. When imports surge, that ecosystem starts to wobble.
This is where the episode becomes less “cars” and more “economics.” Tariffs aren’t just about price. They’re about whether a country is trying to preserve a local industry and whether the protection actually works.
The second tension: “dumping” as a word, and as a fear
Francis then breaks down the technical concept at the centre of the debate: dumping. She describes it in plain terms; selling goods into another country at prices that undercut what it costs to make them; and why trade rules treat that as unfair competition. Gareth’s quick interjections keep it grounded, because this is one of those policy conversations that can float away if you don’t keep pulling it back to reality.
Importantly, the episode doesn’t claim dumping is proven in this case. Instead, it reflects the concern: that the market is being flooded, that producers in China have excess capacity, and that the result is pressure on local manufacturing.
The third tension: the uncomfortable question South Africans keep asking
Then Gareth hits the question that refuses to die: if South Africa builds cars locally, why are locally produced vehicles still so expensive that imports can land cheaper even with tariffs? It’s the most consumer-honest moment in the episode; because it forces the conversation to admit that “protect local manufacturing” can’t be the only line. If the protected product remains out of reach, protection starts to feel like policy for someone else’s reality.
Francis doesn’t try to oversimplify the answer. Instead, the episode expands the frame: manufacturing costs, scale, and how some exporters can push prices down through policy support and production strategy.
A practical alternative: build here, don’t just ship here
One of the strongest “solutions” moments comes when Francis brings in what she heard from a major industry voice: a hard tariff jump isn’t what local industry is calling for, because it risks pricing entry-level buyers out of the market. The alternative floated is more strategic; incentivise manufacturers (including Chinese brands) to build locally so parts supply deepens, competition shifts onto South African soil, and costs can come down over time.
This lines up with the broader policy discussion happening publicly: policymakers have been weighing tougher measures - including anti-dumping tools - as imports rise and local component suppliers feel the squeeze.
The geopolitics twist: friends can still fight about trade
Then the episode does a very South African thing: it jokes; and then lands a serious point. Gareth frames the BRICS relationship like a “dating app” moment: aren’t we supposed to be allies? Francis answers with the blunt truth: countries protect their interests, even with partners, especially when the economic stakes are jobs and industrial capacity.
And here’s the cautionary memory the episode leaves you with: policy swings have consequences. Francis points to how tariff changes in the past helped wipe out industries. So the real question isn’t “tariff or no tariff?” It’s: can South Africa design the protection in a way that doesn’t boomerang onto consumers; or trigger the next wave of manufacturers simply leaving?
That’s why the number of the day isn’t just 50%. It’s a test of whether South Africa can hold two truths at once: protect jobs, and keep entry-level mobility possible.
Catch up on all Number of the Day episodes here.