JOHANNESBURG - President Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver his State of the Nation Address on Thursday evening.
There will be promises of jobs again, economic inclusion and infrastructure development.
But as South Africans listen for solutions, questions remain. Have the past pledges translated into real change?
Iraj Abedian, Chief Economist at Pan-African Investment Research Services, says the President’s goals sound “warm and fuzzy,” but the real challenge lies in implementation.
“The implementation of these policies will determine whether the economy turns around,” he says.
In his last address, Ramaphosa said South Africa needed to grow at up to 3 percent to reach its full economic potential.
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However, the economy has grown at below 2 percent, which Abedian notes is insufficient.
With South Africa’s population growing at roughly 2 percent annually, any economic growth below that means the country is effectively becoming poorer.
Abedian attributes 90 percent of South Africa’s economic challenges to domestic factors, and only 10 percent to external geopolitical influences.
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He identifies the country’s key issues as inconsistent government policy and poor municipal governance.
“The vast majority of people live in areas that are badly run,” Abedian says.
He also notes a disconnect between government intentions and follow-through.
According to him, after SONA there is rarely a “hawkish” focus on execution with strict deadlines.
On the positive side, Abedian says there has been some improvement in transport infrastructure, and government finances have strengthened, helping the country exit the greylist.
However, setbacks remain: the closure of certain motor plants has slightly reduced international investment, while Transnet operations in Durban have improved but Cape Town continues to lag.